It’s hard to believe, but it’s that time of year again: the 2011 Grammy Awards air this Sunday at 8 p.m. Eastern. Country music has its hand in the Grammy pot via major nominations for Lady Antebellum, performances by Miranda Lambert, Lady A and Martina McBride, and appearances by Keith Urban, Zac Brown, Blake Shelton and Kris Kristofferson. We’ve picked and predicted the awards below – chime in with your own thoughts, and stop by on Sunday night for our live blog!
Album of the Year
Should Win
- Arcade Fire, The Suburbs – Dan
- Eminem, Recovery – Kevin, Tara
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
- Lady Gaga, The Fame Monster
- Katy Perry, Teenage Dream
Will Win
- Arcade Fire, The Suburbs
- Eminem, Recovery – Kevin, Dan, Tara
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
- Lady Gaga, The Fame Monster
- Katy Perry, Teenage Dream
Kevin: In a field of newer artists, Eminem is the established veteran that is overdue for this award. It helps that he also made the best album of his career, as well as of the five nominees.
Dan: I could actually see Lady A coming out on top, since they’ve moved a lot of units and are the least divisive act here. But Recovery was a big comeback, and NARAS likes to use this award as a lifetime achievement thing. I don’t like that tendency, though; I’d rather we just reward the best set. To me, that was Arcade Fire’s ambitious concept album.
Tara: I really respect The Suburbs and really dig Recovery. Both are deserving, but Eminem probably has the edge with NARAS for the reasons stated above. (PS – I’m still not over it. TEENAGE DREAM?)
Record of the Year
Should Win
- B.O.B featuring Bruno Mars, “Nothin’ On You”
- Eminem featuring Rihanna, “Love the Way You Lie”
- Cee Lo Green, “F*** You” – Dan, Tara
- Jay-Z featuring Alicia Keys, “Empire State of Mind” – Kevin
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
Will Win
- B.O.B featuring Bruno Mars, “Nothin’ On You”
- Eminem featuring Rihanna, “Love the Way You Lie”
- Cee Lo Green, “F*** You”
- Jay-Z featuring Alicia Keys, “Empire State of Mind”
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
Kevin: Perhaps it’s an instinctual reaction as a native New Yorker, but I still get chills every time I hear “Empire State of Mind.” Jay-Z’s casual “Long live the World Trade” in the second verse perfectly captures how our city moved briskly forward after 9/11 like we always do, but we haven’t forgotten it.
No Urban or Hip-Hop record has ever won this award, so it pains me to predict that Lady Antebellum will triumph over four better records. I hope I’m wrong.
Dan: Cee Lo’s viral novelty hit was one of last year’s biggest delights. I could see this award going to any track but “Nothin’ On You,” but suspect voters will probably go with the least edgy track.
Tara: I could make an argument for four of the five songs here, but I can’t peel myself away from Green’s personality-packed throwback hit that practically begs you to love it. And do I. I agree with Dan and Kevin, though, that Lady A will take this.
Song of the Year
Should Win
- “Beg, Steal, or Borrow” – Ray LaMontagne
- “F*** You!” – Brody Brown, Cee Lo Green, Philip Lawrence & Bruno Mars
- “The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Kevin, Tara
- “Love the Way You Lie” – Alexander Grant, Skylar Grey & Marshall Mathers
- “Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
Will Win
- “Beg, Steal, or Borrow” – Ray LaMontagne
- “F*** You!” – Brody Brown, Cee Lo Green, Philip Lawrence & Bruno Mars
- “The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Kevin, Tara
- “Love the Way You Lie” – Alexander Grant, Skylar Grey & Marshall Mathers
- “Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
Kevin: I think the biggest hurdle for “The House That Built Me” was getting the nomination. It really stands out in this field. It used to be rare for the Song victor to not be nominated for Record, but it has happened three times in the last seven years, including last year.
Tara: I’d honestly be happy to see any of these songs win. I’ll back “The House That Built Me” and just take a guess that the voters will, too.
Best New Artist
Should Win
- Justin Bieber
- Drake
- Florence + the Machine
- Mumford & Sons – Dan, Kevin, Tara
- Esperanza Spalding
Will Win
- Justin Bieber
- Drake – Kevin, Dan, Tara
- Florence + the Machine
- Mumford & Sons
- Esperanza Spalding
Kevin: I dig Mumford & Sons the most, but Drake seems to be the guy to beat.
Dan: I think Mumford has the most potential going forward. They’re got a dark-horse shot at the win, too, though Drake does seem like the most logical choice. Bieber’s by far the biggest name right now, but NARAS didn’t give it to tween-fave forerunners Hanson or Jonas Brothers, so…
Tara: Ditto. Although I have an unexplainable inkling that the Bieber might nab the award.
Best Country Album
Should Win
- Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give
- Jamey Johnson, The Guitar Song – Dan
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
- Miranda Lambert, Revolution
Will Win
- Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge
- Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give
- Jamey Johnson, The Guitar Song
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now – Dan
- Miranda Lambert, Revolution – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
Kevin: I think Bentley made the best record, and perhaps the slew of collaborators will help raise its profile with voters. Usually the country album nominated for overall Album wins this award, but I’m thinking that Lambert’s recent awards streak will continue here.
Dan: I pick Johnson by a nose, but genuinely like every album here besides Need You Now. Hoping Kevin’s right about that one.
Leeann: Like Kevin said, Bentley deserves to win and I hope he does, but I think Lambert’s album may win due to accessibility and her reputation for artistic integrity.
Tara: Up on the Ridge and Revolution both hit my sweet spot: they straddle the line between reverent and relevant and make me genuinely excited about country music’s future. Bentley’s album is the better of the two (and the best of the bunch) – but I think Lambert’s will pick up the most votes.
Best Female Country Vocal Performance
Should Win
- Jewel, “Satisfied”
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” – Dan, Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- LeAnn Rimes, “Swingin’”
- Carrie Underwood, “Temporary Home”
- Gretchen Wilson, “I’d Love to Be Your Last”
Will Win
- Jewel, “Satisfied”
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” – Dan, Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- LeAnn Rimes, “Swingin’”
- Carrie Underwood, “Temporary Home”
- Gretchen Wilson, “I’d Love to Be Your Last”
Kevin: This is Lambert’s best shot at a Grammy. Underwood will threaten, as always, but I think the strength of this song makes it tough to beat.
Leeann: Lambert’s signature song is the strongest and likely most long-lasting of the bunch.
Tara: Lambert and Underwood turn in two of the most emotive, powerful performances of their careers, but “The House That Built Me” is undeniably the better song. Since Underwood’s Grammy streak seems to be up for now, I think the voters will side with Lambert.
Best Male Country Vocal Performance
Should Win
- Jamey Johnson, “Macon”
- Toby Keith, “Cryin’ For Me (Wayman’s Song)” – Kevin, Leeann
- David Nail, “Turning Home” – Dan
- Keith Urban, “‘Til Summer Comes Around”
- Chris Young, “Gettin’ You Home (The Black Dress Song)” – Tara
Will Win
- Jamey Johnson, “Macon”
- Toby Keith, “Cryin’ For Me (Wayman’s Song)”
- David Nail, “Turning Home”
- Keith Urban, “‘Til Summer Comes Around” – Dan, Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- Chris Young, “Gettin’ You Home (The Black Dress Song)”
Kevin: I am not going to complain about Urban winning again for my favorite single from his last two albums. But Toby Keith is way overdue in this category, and he’s nominated for one of his best vocal performances to date.
Dan: Nail’s nuanced performance brought what could have been a very rote song to life. And his career could use the boost.
Leeann: I think the Grammy voters will reflexively give the award to Keith Urban, but Toby Keith’s song is the most poignant of the nominees.
Tara: Urban’s got his hold on this category, but I’m in Young’s corner. His slow-burning hit is as charming as it is sexy, which isn’t an easy thing to pull off. And that voice.
Best Duo/Group Country Vocal Performance
Should Win
- Zac Brown Band, “Free”
- Dailey & Vincent, “Elizabeth”
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
- Little Big Town, “Little White Church”– Tara
- The SteelDrivers, “Where Rainbows Never Die” – Kevin, Leeann
Will Win
- Zac Brown Band, “Free”
- Dailey & Vincent, “Elizabeth”
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now” – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- Little Big Town, “Little White Church”
- The SteelDrivers, “Where Rainbows Never Die”
Kevin: I think it’s a race between Lady Antbellum and Zac Brown Band, with LA in the lead. But the SteelDrivers get the annual “song I discovered because it was nominated for a Grammy and fell in love with after hearing it” award from me.
Leeann: The SteelDriver’s song is my favorite with Little Big Town at a close second, but I suspect that Lady A won’t be shut out for such a hugely popular radio hit across the board.
Tara: Dear NARAS: since “Single Ladies” got screwed over for ROTY last year, please show Little Big Town some love for their crazy awesome countrified version. It’s just as good…maybe even better?
Best Country Collaboration with Vocals
Should Win
- “Bad Angel” — Dierks Bentley, Miranda Lambert & Jamey Johnson
- “Pride (In The Name Of Love)” — Dierks Bentley, Del McCoury & The Punch Brothers
- “As She’s Walking Away” — Zac Brown Band & Alan Jackson – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- “Hillbilly Bone” — Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins
- “I Run To You” — Marty Stuart & Connie Smith
Will Win
- “Bad Angel” — Dierks Bentley, Miranda Lambert & Jamey Johnson
- “Pride (In The Name Of Love)” — Dierks Bentley, Del McCoury & The Punch Brothers
- “As She’s Walking Away” — Zac Brown Band & Alan Jackson – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- “Hillbilly Bone” — Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins
- “I Run To You” — Marty Stuart & Connie Smith
Kevin: Best collaboration in a very long time. Love hearing an artist from my youth playing elder statesman so well.
Leeann: It’s difficult for me to imagine that “As She’s Walking Away” won’t be rewarded for both its popularity and the significance of the still active veteran, Alan Jackson, dispensing wisdom to the up-and-coming bright stars of country music in the Zac Brown Band.
Tara: I love the groove of “Bad Angel,” but its collaboration isn’t nearly as dynamic nor as fitting as that of “As She’s Walking Way.” I can’t imagine any “wise man” but Jackson pulling up a stool next to Brown in this song.
Best Country Instrumental Performance
Should Win
- Cherryholmes, “Tattoo of a Smudge”
- The Infamous Stringdusters, “Magic #9″
- Punch Brothers, “New Chance Blues” – Kevin, Leeann
- Darrell Scott, ‘Willow Creek”
- Marty Stuart, “Hummingbyrd”
Will Win
- Cherryholmes, “Tattoo of a Smudge”
- The Infamous Stringdusters, “Magic #9″
- Punch Brothers, “New Chance Blues” – Kevin, Leeann
- Darrell Scott, ‘Willow Creek”
- Marty Stuart, “Hummingbyrd”
Kevin: Punch Brothers are approaching Nickel Creek levels of awesomeness. Possibly exceeding them.
Leeann: Kevin’s right. Even as someone who isn’t typically fond of instrumentals, I dig those of the Punch Brothers.
Best Country Song
Should Win
- “The Breath You Take” — Casey Beathard, Dean Dillon & Jessie Jo Dillon
- “Free” — Zac Brown
- “The House That Built Me” — Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Dan, Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- “I’d Love To Be Your Last” — Rivers Rutherford, Annie Tate & Sam Tate
- “If I Die Young” — Kimberly Perry
- “Need You Now” — Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
Will Win
- “The Breath You Take” — written by Casey Beathard, Dean Dillon & Jessie Jo Dillon
- “Free” — written by Zac Brown
- “The House That Built Me” — written by Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Kevin, Tara, Leeann
- “I’d Love To Be Your Last” — written by Rivers Rutherford, Annie Tate & Sam Tate
- “If I Die Young” — written by Kimberly Perry
- “Need You Now” — written by Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
Kevin: My heart is owned by “If I Die Young”, but I think that “The House That Built Me” is objectively the best song.
Leeann: While The Band Perry’s song sounds the coolest, the writing for “The House That Built Me” is clear frontrunner for the best song of the year. It deserves and likely will be recognized as such, especially since it was both very critically acclaimed and successful as a single.
Tara: No question “The House That Built Me” is the best written song of the group, and I think it’ll be recognized as such.
Best Bluegrass Album
Should Win
- Sam Bush, Circles Around Me
- Patty Loveless, Mountain Soul II
- The Del McCoury Band, Family Circle
- Peter Rowan Bluegrass Band, Legacy
- The SteelDrivers, Reckless – Kevin
Will Win
- Sam Bush, Circles Around Me
- Patty Loveless, Mountain Soul II
- The Del McCoury Band, Family Circle – Kevin
- Peter Rowan Bluegrass Band, Legacy
- The SteelDrivers, Reckless
Kevin: Kudos to Loveless for her nomination, but I like the SteelDrivers set more.
Best Americana Album
Should Win
- Rosanne Cash, The List
- Los Lobos, Tin Can Trust
- Willie Nelson, Country Music – Dan, Kevin
- Robert Plant, Band of Joy
- Mavis Staples, You Are Not Alone
Will Win
- Rosanne Cash, The List
- Los Lobos, Tin Can Trust
- Willie Nelson, Country Music
- Robert Plant, Band of Joy
- Mavis Staples, You Are Not Alone – Kevin
Kevin: So I think Staples is nominated for an awesome gospel album and Nelson for an awesome country album. This category is confusing.